As Tuesday’s Midterms Loom, There’s Only One Question: How Big Will the Republican Win Be?
It’s no secret that Republicans in Florida and across the nation are poised to return with a vengeance in response to the Biden presidency, and all signs point to a massive red wave come Tuesday. The only question is precisely how big will it be?
According to The Capitolist, Top GOP Tallahassee insiders are all giving the same signals regarding the Governor’s race; it’s more than likely Crist gets the equivalent of a building dropped on him in a crushing, double-digit defeat. DeSantis is set to laugh Crist out of the state with an average predicted lead of 10 points, 13 on the high and seven on the low end.
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There’s historical precedent for this as well. Jeb Bush won his Florida gubernatorial election by a 10-points in 1998 and by 12-points over his Democrat opponent in 2002.
The Capitolist also contacted several Democrat operatives to see what they had to say. None had any hope for Crist or any other Democratic candidate in a significant race. One wrote back with a phrase dour enough to be applied to a terminal diagnosis.
“We all know what’s going to happen.”
If Republicans win in Florida as projected, there’s a good shot they’d be making history. Since the Civil War era, at least one statewide cabinet seat has been held by a Democrat in Florida. With Republicans set to win the Governor, U.S. Senator, Attorney General, and Chief Financial Officer positions, and with Nikki Fried leaving her Agricultural Commissioners office in January, it will mark the end of the Democrats’ streak.
Moreover, The Capitolist writes that multiple Tallahassee insiders see the potential for Republicans to flip Orange and Miami-Dade Counties, two traditionally blue bastions, with early voting numbers acting as a bellwether. While Democrats usually outpace Republicans in early voting, Republicans enjoy a significant lead. A surge in Election Day turnout could keep these counties blue, but there simply isn’t any excitement or momentum to motivate one, despite Democrats’ desperate attempts to demonize Republicans. The Orlando Sentinel admitted as much.
“It’s been a remarkable mid-term election in Florida, with months of campaigning and millions of dollars of ad spending soon coming to an end as voters go to the polls Tuesday to determine the future of the state. But as that final day draws near, the two parties appear to be headed in opposite directions…
Although Democrats have said this is the most critical midterm election for the nation’s future, there has been noticeably less enthusiasm among the party faithful than in previous years.”
Democrats seem to be at a loss for why they are losing so badly. Conventional wisdom points to the economy, but that doesn’t explain why Republicans are closing with culture war issues like parental rights. Democrats have pointed the finger at culture-focused Republicans, calling them extremists, but that hasn’t stopped their popularity. The Orlando Sentinel has blamed “young voter apathy” and the overall Republican spending advantage as if Democrat performance has nothing to do with those things.
The Capitolist‘s Brian Burgess offers his ideas on the details of this Democrat blind spot.
“Democrats have tried desperately, and failed spectacularly, to paint Republicans as extremists or “culture warriors” for daring to take on the sensitive subject matter of sexual and racial issues in the classroom. They’ve tried to claim that DeSantis and his GOP allies are leading a “culture war” over things are, to Democrats, “no big deal.” But to parents across the country, regardless of political party, those things are a big deal. A very, very big deal, as Tuesday’s results will show.”
The blindspot is built from the Democrat’s ideological commitment to a specific set of ideas. So much so that they are pathologically incapable of realizing that those ideals may be at fault and Republicans aren’t employing any trick, dastardly strategy, or temporarily effective angle. Until Democrats understand that it is they themselves that are driving the average American away and into the waiting arms of the GOP, they will continue to be blown out. Tuesday will serve as the first explosive example.
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