New polling from New Hampshire shows Ron DeSantis has taken an early lead over President Donald Trump. The survey found that the Florida Governor holds a 12-point advantage, consistent with his recent surge in popularity since the 2022 midterms. DeSantis, who has not yet made his 2024 plans clear, stands at 42% support among NH primary voters, compared to Trump’s 30%.
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The poll also indicated that Trump’s support among New Hampshire voters had eroded dramatically.
“Support for DeSantis (42 percent) is largely unchanged since June 2022 (39 percent) while support for Trump (30 percent) has steadily declined from a high of 47 percent in July 2021.”
University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll
While Trump continues to command in most national primary polling, recent surveys have shown DeSantis to be gaining momentum. A recent Marquette poll showed DeSantis leading by 28 points over Trump— an astounding 64-36% matchup. Another recent UNH poll awarded DeSantis a 12-point lead in favorability among primary voters. Last month, Vanderbilt University polling awarded DeSantis a 17-point lead.
With one year to go until the New Hampshire primary, polling data should be treated with a heavy dose of skepticism, but the latest figures appear to reflect recent disappointments among Trump’s base. Since presenting a lackluster 2024 campaign announcement in November, Trump and his supporters have repeatedly found themselves on opposite sides of critical issues.
Trump’s decision to privately support Ronna McDaniel for reelection to the Republican National Committee chair has left many supporters questioning his commitment to “draining the swamp,” particularly after last November’s midterm failures.
If Ronna McDaniel remains RNC chair, it’ll be because Trump and his camp whipped for her instead of trying to find or publicly backing a replacement. What then in that event for “drain the swamp”?
— Pedro L. Gonzalez (@emeriticus) January 26, 2023
DeSantis took the opportunity to endorse McDaniel’s opponent, Harmeet Dhillon.
DeSantis has endorsed the America First insurgent candidate for RNC.
Trump has endorsed the Establishment. Again.
Pattern forming here.
— Clint Brendon (@BrendonClint) January 26, 2023
DeSantis has also set himself apart from Trump as a skeptic of the vaccinations forced on Americans during the COVID lockdowns.
If Trump continues defending the “vaccine,” DeSantis will wipe the floor with him. And it won’t be hard.
— Jedediah Bila (@JedediahBila) January 19, 2023
Nobody is selling DeSantis harder than Trump. He needs to get better. His actions & words are helping DeSantis the most.
Trump rallying with Lindsey Graham while STILL over-selling the vaccine is like a DeSantis campaign ad. https://t.co/VZCvkFt2sY
— An0maly (@LegendaryEnergy) January 19, 2023
Trump’s support of Kevin McCarthy for House speaker also drove a wedge between him and his most ardent supporters in congress.
Whatever I tweet about Trump, people respond by "he has a plan." Did he have a plan when he hired Bill Barr and Christopher Ray? He supported McCarthy over 20 Republican populists. He's staying neutral in the race for the RNC chair. Ronna McDaniels? Now Lindsey Graham at a rally.
— Dr. Andrew Jackson (@DrAndrewJackson) January 18, 2023
Despite recent missteps, Trump remains the most recognizable face in the republican party. If DeSantis were to become the frontrunner in national polling, he would need to contend with the years of nonstop media coverage that have cemented Donald Trump as the most well-known name in politics.
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“We’ve had three substandard election cycles in a row… and I would say of all three of those, ’22 was probably the worst, given the political environment of a very unpopular President Biden,” DeSantis said in a recent interview with Charlie Kirk.
“Huge majorities of the people think the country is going in the wrong direction… and so, I think we need a change. I think we need to get some new blood in the RNC.”
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