Condition Red: Florida Republicans Lead Democrats in New Registered Voters 9 to 1
While there’s been plenty of political grandstanding about the upcoming red wave, especially in Florida, the notion is increasingly backed up with hard numbers. Florida Republican prospects in the midterms continue to look brighter and brighter as new republican voter registration outclasses democrats 9 to 1, potentially indicating the end of Democratic hopes in the state..
Registered republicans already hold the lead in early voting in Florida, likely spelling doom for Democrats, who Republicans always outnumber in votes cast on election day. But what’s more, the number of newly registered Republicans for midterms dwarfs the number of new democrats.
Florida Voter Registration data is out!
2022 will be the first General Election in Florida where Republicans lead in voter registration. Democrats are losing ground to Republicans AND non-partisan voters.
I'll have more data via substack in few days #flapol pic.twitter.com/fFjZs25ej7
— Florida Data Geek ✝️🇺🇦 (@MappingFL) October 26, 2022
Florida has 5.28 million registered Republicans for the Nov. 8 election, which is an uptick of over 86,376 from the number of Republicans registered to vote in the August primary. Democrats, on the other hand, are stuck at 4.97 million Democrats, only 9,380 more than the number registered to vote in August. Not only are there more registered republicans than democrats this election cycle, but Republicans also have nine times the recruits for midterms than Democrats.
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These latest numbers may be a death knell for Democratic prospects in Florida, changing its status from a critical purple swing state to a solid red bastion. It’s undoubtedly what Kevin Wagner, a Florida Atlantic University political scientist, told the Sun Sentinel.
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“It might be time to consider Florida, if not a red state, than a red-leaning state. If you’re just being factual, until the Democrats start winning races statewide with some degree of regularity, it’s hard to call it a battleground state,”
Since 2012, Republicans have won 11 statewide races, while Democrats have only taken one. Multiple Twitter users have speculated that the registered voter advantage likely spelled the end of Democrat competitiveness in the Sunshine State.
Dems in trouble. https://t.co/jbGF006qiY
— Mike (@NoleFan06) October 29, 2022
In Florida Republicans lead Democrats by 100s of thosands of voters. Florida was purple, now deeply red. https://t.co/oS9r63ZvTt
— WT Hekowi (@hekowi) October 15, 2022
One tweet even included a quote from a Democratic party chair, calling the rise “shocking and scary.”
Meanwhile in FLORIDA:
In 2018, Dems enjoyed a 263,269-vote advantage. As of Sept. 30, Republicans had a lead of 292,533 voters — a swing of nearly 556,000 registered voters over DeSantis’ 1st term.
“It’s shocking & it’s scary,” Democratic Party Chair said about DeSantis’ rise.
— Wendell Smith (@CFHSBB) October 24, 2022
Sean Phillippi, a Democratic strategist who has worked for many political campaigns in South Florida and statewide, told the Sun Sentinel the same thing.
“Democrats lost this election when they lost their voter registration advantage,” Phillippi said. “Republicans have been winning elections at a good clip for the last decade — and that’s when Democrats had a voter registration advantage.”
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