TALLAHASSEE — Florida’s Democratic Party leader expressed confidence that independents and crossover voters will even out the advantage Republicans have racked up in ballots already cast in next week’s elections.
Democrats have focused on abortion rights, high property insurance costs and culture-war issues that have emerged from Tallahassee, as they try to end a Republican supermajority in the Florida House, flip a Pinellas County congressional seat held by Republican Anna Paulina Luna and score an upset in the U.S. Senate race.
“We’re going to have a lot of surprises on Nov. 5 because people are frustrated with extremism,” Democratic Party Chairwoman Nikki Fried said during a conference call with reporters on Tuesday.
As of Thursday morning, Republicans held a large lead over Democrats in ballots cast. Data posted on the state Division of Elections website showed about 2.79 million Republicans had cast ballots at early voting sites or by mail. That compared to 2.06 million Democrats. Another 1.24 million ballots had been cast by voters without party affiliations.
While more Democrats than Republicans have voted by mail, the GOP has dominated in ballots cast at early voting sites.
Kartik Krishnaiyer, a former Democratic consultant and publisher of the Florida Squeeze website, said Fried may be correct in her predictions, though at the same time they might be “a bit of hyperbole.” The problem is independents in South Florida have been acting more like Republicans, Krishnaiyer said in a video posted Tuesday night.
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As of Thursday morning, 638,523 votes had been cast in Miami-Dade County by mail and in early voting, according to the state numbers. Republicans had a more than 33,000-voter advantage over Democrats in ballots cast. Unaffiliated voters accounted for 162,697, or 25 percent, of the Miami-Dade ballots cast.
“Miami Dade County is the problem,” Krishnaiyer said. “Otherwise, there would be a chance. There is a chance the Democrats can be competitive. But if you take a county that in 2016 the Democrats won by 30 (percentage) points and 291,000 raw votes, and you throw it in the Republican column, even if it’s just this margin, now 32,000 votes. … That is an unbelievable vote swing that you can’t offset.”
As early voting got underway, Republican Party of Florida Chairman Evan Power said the GOP in the past had tried to head into Election Day with vote numbers even.
“If we’re able to build an advantage that it looks like we’re going to be doing in front of Election Day, we could get to R-plus eight or R-plus nine (Republican percentage point advantage), which would be uncharted territory in Florida,” Power said.
Power said in addition to Luna’s contest with Democrat Whitney Fox, concerns had been raised earlier, but lately eased, over another freshman U.S. Rep. Laurel Lee, R-Fla., holding her seat in the Tampa region.
“I think we’re doing a good job of communicating to those voters and turning them out,” Power said.
CAMPUS ACTIVISM AT ISSUE
State university system Chancellor Ray Rodrigues this week warned universities and support organizations against engaging in political activism in the final days before Tuesday’s elections.
“I want to remind our institutions that, pursuant to our regulation on prohibited expenditures, institutions and their direct support organizations are prohibited from using state or federal funds to engage in political or social activism,” Rodrigues said during the university system Board of Governors meeting at Florida International University.
Rodrigues added that the rule doesn’t apply to student organizations.
Rodrigues also praised schools for getting through the Oct. 7 anniversary of the Hamas attacks on Israel that sparked the war in Gaza “without drama on our campuses.”
“I think all of our presidents did a really great job and their staff in prioritizing the safety of our students and prioritizing the ability for students to exercise their First Amendment rights,” Rodrigues said.
BE PREPARED
Common Cause Florida Executive Director Amy Keith said Tuesday more than 500 calls had been made to the group’s election-protection hotlines, including many from people seeking assistance in Haitian Creole.
During a conference call with reporters, Keith also said voters in hurricane-damaged areas shouldn’t be shy about contacting their county elections supervisors.
“Some of the counties have been able to do some forwarding of vote-by-mail ballots if they were covered by the executive order,” Keith said, referring to an executive order issued by Gov. Ron DeSantis that addressed election issues. “But the core message here is, in-person, early voting has started, which means that it is really important to vote so that folks know that if they didn’t get their vote-by-mail ballot, they can go vote in person.”
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Keith also advised people to take advantage of the final days of early voting, but to be prepared for “some very active electioneering and campaigning outside of polling locations.” Early voting will continue statewide through Saturday, with some counties also holding it Sunday.
“We know that things, you know, they might get rowdy at the polls, and when voters go, they should know that that might be the case,” Keith said. “That’s another reason why early voting is so important, because you have different options. You don’t feel comfortable at that polling place at the moment, but you can also go early in the day. Pro tip. There’s fewer people out there getting rowdy earlier in the day.”
Virginia Solomon, president and CEO of Common Cause nationally, said during the call that lawsuits, voter-roll challenges and voter-intimidation efforts are expected to lead to “a very busy post-election period.”
“It’s important to communicate that we will likely not have a (presidential) winner named on election night, and we need to prepare the public for this,” Solomon said.
SOCIAL MEDIA POST OF THE WEEK: “Supervisors of Elections across Florida are also voters and residents of their counties. They have a vested interest in ensuring that the elections process in their county is seamless and efficient.” — Florida Department of State (@FLSecofState) on Wednesday.
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