A new poll of likely Florida voters shows GOP nominee Donald Trump crushing Vice President Kamala Harris in the November election. The statewide Florida poll, conducted by the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL), was the first since President Biden withdrew his bid for re-election on July 21. Findings show Trump only slightly increasing his lead in the Sunshine State compared to his polls against Biden while still dramatically outperforming his results in the 2020 election.
“It’s not a huge surprise to see Trump ahead in his home state of Florida, which he won by three points in 2020,” PORL faculty director Dr. Michael Binder said in a press release. “With Harris just entering the race, enthusiasm amongst her supporters has livened up what was once thought to be an easy win for Trump in Florida.”
The poll included a sample of 774 likely Florida voters. Asked who they would support in the 2024 election, 49 percent answered that they planned to back former President Trump. By contrast, only 42 percent said they planned to back Harris. Another 4 percent said they would vote for a third party, with the remaining 6 percent giving no answer.
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Our new statewide poll shows Trump 7 points ahead of Harris in his home state of Florida. Check out our website for the full press release!https://t.co/1FwbGMNxIS pic.twitter.com/h5HDb2VEsQ
— PORL (@UNFPORL) July 30, 2024
The poll projects Trump winning by 7 points, around double his margin of victory in Florida in the previous Presidential election.
In previous polls comparing Trump and Biden, RealClearPolitics found that, on average, Trump was projected to beat Biden by 6.3 points this November. Since Harris jumped into the race, her approval has seen a substantial bump. However, one poll published by FOX 13 just three days before Harris’ campaign launch found Trump beating her by a whopping 10 points.
“What’s really interesting is that Trump has a couple point bigger lead than Rick Scott, who’s only up by four – just inside the margin of error of this poll,” commented Binder, “Scott has a history of winning razor thin statewide races in Florida, and in a state that has become significantly more red in the past six years, this could be another close race for Scott.”
The PORL survey also asked respondents about the U.S. Senate election in Florida. Around 47 percent said they intend to back incumbent Rick Scott in November, while 43 percent expressed support for Democrat Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.
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69% of respondents in our new Florida Statewide poll said they’ll vote “yes” on Amendment 4. See our press release at https://t.co/MK3gji1z93 for the full results. pic.twitter.com/H7IqsuCJ7v
— PORL (@UNFPORL) July 30, 2024
The poll also included a question on Amendment 4 — the upcoming ballot measure that would legalize abortion until viability in the state of Florida. The survey found that 69 percent of Florida voters support codifying abortion rights, including 53 percent of Republicans.
Binder, however, says he expects support for the amendment to drop before the election after a financial impact statement was included in the measure’s final wording.
“Again, we have yet to see campaigns on either side of this really get moving,” said Binder. “Factor in the highly contested and contentious financial impact statement recently added to the ballot summary, and I would expect to see support for this amendment drop before November.”
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