Leading election forecaster Nate Silver says former President Donald Trump will win the 2024 election over incumbent President Joe Biden. In releasing his first statistical model of the election season, Silver says that competition is “not a toss-up” between the two candidates, with his findings strongly favoring Trump by 66 to 34 percent.
Silver, who said he supported Biden in the election, indicated that the situation wasn’t unwinnable for the 81-year-old president but added that his chances were shrinking rapidly.
“The candidate who I honest-to-God think has a better chance (Trump) isn’t the candidate I’d rather have win (Biden),” Silver wrote Wednesday on his Substack.
“The model gives Trump a 66 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, and Biden a 34 percent chance,”
Silver has been a leading elections forecaster since the 2008 election. In 2012, he accurately predicted the winner of every state and projected Obama to beat Romney. In 2016, he gave Trump a low chance of winning the Presidency but still said he had a path to victory. In 2020, Silver gave Biden a 90 percent chance of winning on the eve of the election.
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Nate Silver has published his first 2024 election model prediciton…
It gives Trump a 66% chance of winning.
In my opinion, Nate is the best mainstream election forecaster in the game. He’s also said many times that he personally does not want Trump to win. pic.twitter.com/OVzaT29cCb
— Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) June 26, 2024
“[T]he items on the ‘reasons to think Trump might win’ checklist have proven to be more robust,” Silver said.
“There’s Biden’s age, which voters have extremely persistent concerns about. There’s the very high inflation of mid-2021 through mid-2023 — which has considerably abated, but still is reflected in much higher prices than when Biden took office. There’s the fact that the global mood is pessimistic and that incumbents have been getting crushed everywhere around the world. Plus, some of the factors I thought would be an advantage for Biden haven’t proven to be. There’s less of a fundraising gap than I expected, for instance, and I’m not sure that Biden has run the smarter tactical campaign.”
Nationally, Trump and Biden are still neck-and-neck in the polls, often within one percentage point. However, Silver says news outlets are wrong to report the election as a toss-up, and close polling means a sizable advantage for Trump in the electoral college.
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in nate silver’s election model, new york is only biden+10 and trending right.
we are so incredibly back. pic.twitter.com/Nybkxwhpm7
— Central Valley Politics (@CV__Politics) June 27, 2024
“Biden could also change his strategy, change his staff, or even pull the emergency lever and decide that stepping back and giving someone else the nomination — either Kamala Harris or someone chosen at the convention — could give Democrats better odds. (Disclaimer: that also might be a terrible idea),” Silver also wrote.
“And he’s really not that far behind. But the race isn’t a toss-up. That’s at best a white lie — a convenient fiction that allows everyone to shirk accountability for their forecasts and their decisions.”
Trump and Biden are expected to take the stage Thursday night for their first rematch Presidential debate. The forum comes after Biden spent a week in isolation at Camp David, allegedly preparing for the televised showdown. Trump, however, has been campaigning in Virginia and Georgia, where the debate is set to take place.
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