John R. Smith: Florida’s Census Undercount Is Costing Us—Big Time

Florida’s economy is booming. We’re sitting on nearly $1.5 trillion in economic output, we lead the nation in population growth, and yet, we’re leaving billions of dollars on the table. Why? Because we’re not counting our people.

According to Florida TaxWatch, the 2020 Census missed 3.48% of our residents—about 750,000 people. That’s not a rounding error. That’s the equivalent of two congressional districts’ worth of Floridians simply vanishing from the books. The result? Up to $21 billion in lost federal funding over the next decade, and yes, possibly two fewer seats in Congress representing Florida’s growing influence.

This isn’t the first time undercounts have shortchanged Florida. In 1990, we missed 2% of residents. That improved to less than 1% by 2010. But the 2020 count reversed that progress. Florida was one of only six states to suffer a statistically significant undercount. Let that sink in.

It’s not just about political power or bragging rights. The impact of undercounting hits us where it hurts—infrastructure, business investment, and transportation. The latter is especially vulnerable. Transportation accounts for 13% of the state’s total budget, and many major projects—from highways to ports—depend on federal formulas that rely on census data. Undercount your population, and suddenly you don’t qualify for the funding your growth demands.

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Think about this from a business perspective. The Census isn’t just a bureaucratic exercise—it’s market intelligence. It fuels the American Community Survey (ACS), which informs nearly every major private and public-sector decision for the next ten years. Where to open a new store. Where to expand broadband. Where to invest in housing, healthcare, logistics, and more. If the numbers are off, the strategy is off.

So what do we do?

First, we must stop treating the Census like an afterthought. State leaders must put real weight behind outreach efforts. We need robust public education campaigns, tech-enabled tools, and legislative buy-in to ensure that participation in 2030 doesn’t follow the same path as 2020.

Second, the business community must step up. If you lead a company, large or small, you can join or form a Complete Count Committee—local groups recommended by the U.S. Census Bureau to raise awareness and boost response rates. These committees can partner with chambers of commerce, trade groups, and community organizations to ensure Florida isn’t shorted again.

Bottom line? Undercounts have consequences. They cost us money. They cost us representation. They weaken the infrastructure that supports our economy. Florida is growing fast, but unless we count everyone, we’re flying blind.

In business, if your data is bad, your results suffer. The same goes for the government. Let’s get it right in 2030.


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