John R. Smith: Florida Net Migration Trends Are On the Move
As most of us already know, many new people/migrants move to Florida each day. But that number has changed significantly over the past few years.
During the pandemic boom, the number was very high. By 2025-2026, the pace slowed. But Florida is still growing significantly. As of last December, on average for 2025, about 900-1200 net people were moving to Florida every day. These figures combine both domestic movers from other states and international migrants relocating to our state. About 178,000 international migrants moved to Florida in 2025. All this produced a current population of about 23.5 million residents, projected to exceed 25 million by the early 2030s, making it the 3rd most populous state.
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It is estimated that in the first quarter of 2026, the rate of people moving to Florida has dropped to about 700 per day, which is still a very strong growth. Over the years, most demographers conclude that about 10% of new arrivals settle in Palm Beach County. Interestingly, a news report recently noted that the influx in Florida will fall to 500-650 per day as this year unfolds.
Several factors seem to have caused the recent slowdown in growth. First is the large increases in home prices and rents, followed by rising hurricane insurance premiums and return-to-office trends (fewer remote workers are relocating). These factors have “tempered the pace of inbound moves” compared with the pandemic boom, according to Realtor magazine.
The U.S. Census Bureau flow estimates say the largest sources of new Florida residents are (in order) New York, Texas, California, New Jersey, and Illinois. New York alone sent over 50,000 residents to Florida in 2024. During the pandemic, the migration wave from New York and California was particularly large. Common reasons cited for why people are leaving:
- Lower taxes (Florida has no state income tax
- Lower cost of living vs. large coastal cities
- Warmer climate and retirement decisions
- Remote work allows relocation
International immigration is now a large part of Florida’s population growth. Our state has about 5 million foreign-born residents, equaling about 22% of the population. The migrants are arriving mainly from Venezuela, Cuba, Haiti, Colombia, Brazil, and Central America. International immigration is becoming a larger driver of growth than interstate migration.
Migration within Florida is not evenly distributed. Certain counties and metro areas are attracting the most newcomers. The top counties gaining migrants are Miami-Dade, Broward/Palm Beach, and Polk. Within these major metro areas attracting newcomers, the biggest population gains are around these cities: (1) Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach; (2) Orlando metro; (3) Tampa-St. Petersburg; (4) Lakeland-Winter Haven; (5) Fort Myers-Cape Coral.
So, this year, the bottom line is that we will see about 500-650 people per day currently being added to Florida’s population, with 50-65 new people probably arriving in Palm Beach County. This means growth is still strong, but much slower than the 1,200/day surge during 2021-2022.
Other stories you may want to read:
- John R. Smith: Florida Net Migration Trends Are On the Move - March 16, 2026
- John R. Smith: Diversity Has Two Faces, and a Downside - March 11, 2026
- John R. Smith: How Close Is Your Thinking to the Average Florida Voter? - March 2, 2026