The Florida economy, which has experienced dramatic economic growth for the last three years, will likely return to pre-pandemic growth rates for the next five years.
In 2025, the Sunshine State scored the No. 1 economic ranking by CNBC among all states for the third year in a row. The strongest factors in the scoring were Job Growth and economic growth. State Finances were also strong, and Florida is a leader in new business formations and international trade. Real estate development and tourism were also major highlights. Our economy grew to $1.8 trillion in the first quarter of this year.
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Florida TaxWatch reports that Florida’s population is projected to increase by about 2.3 million people from 2025 to 2034. The net number of new people moving to Florida daily is projected to decrease from 891 in 2025 to 705 in 2034. Breaking that down, the current growth rate of the population is 1.4% and is forecast to decline to +0.8% by the end of 2034. This means the population will continue to increase, but at a decreasing rate.
The number of unemployed Floridians will increase from 10.1 million to a projected 11.6 million in ten years, with more people in the population. The unemployment rate will show a slight increase, from 4.1% to 4.5% until 2027, then slowly decrease to 4% by 2034.
The forecast is that Florida’s GDP growth rate will be 2.4% in 2025 and then decrease to 1.2% over the next 10 years. This is due to the expectation that inflation will increase until 2028, then decrease temporarily, finally seeing a smaller increase in the ensuing years.
Tourism will continue to play a significant role in our economy. Tourists spent a record $131 billion in 2023, directly supporting 2.1 million jobs. The revenue from tourism allows each Florida household to save over nineteen hundred dollars a year on local and state taxes. The growth rate of visitors is expected to increase until 2028, then decrease by 2034.
Compared to the U.S. economy, Florida will grow economically at close to the same rate as the U.S., about 1% higher than the national rate this year. Long-term, Florida’s GDP will grow between 1% and 2%, which will outpace the U.S. rate, which is projected to be a negative 0.5%. Our unemployment rate remains below the national rate this year.
Income growth determines the population’s spending capacity. In Florida, we will expect to see a drop in 2025 and then an increase through 2027 before cooling down again, even though income growth will be higher than the national rate thereafter.
In summary, TaxWatch projects that, after experiencing high economic growth in the past three years, Florida’s economy will return to pre-pandemic growth rates over the next five years. Florida’s economic growth will continue, but at a reduced rate. It must be kept in mind that uncertainty over international trade agreements and inflation could skew these projections.
Other stories you may want to read:
- John R. Smith: How America Got Swamped by $38 Trillion of Debt - November 12, 2025
- John R. Smith: Popular College Majors Don’t Match Job Demand - October 29, 2025
- John R. Smith: Economic Forecast for Florida - October 13, 2025