Midterm Update-Projections Show Republicans Will Take House and Senate Back in November
While initially only expected to take back the house in the midterms, Republicans are projected to win in critical races across the country for both chambers of Congress.
Real Clear Politics indicates that Republicans will take back the house. Seats sprinkled around the country are likely to flip, including Florida’s 13th. According to Mike Dorstewitz at NewsMax, Florida 13, Charlie Crist’s former seat is one of the top ten most likely to flip, with Republican Challenger Ana Paulina Luna looking to fill it.
“This one looks ripe for Air Force veteran and Republican Anna Paulina Luna to flip. She challenged incumbent Democratic Rep. Charlie Crist for the seat in 2020, where she shared 47% of the vote.”
RealClear Politics predicts that the GOP will win the Senate as well by flipping Nevada and Arizona, hanging on to Pennsylvania, but failing to win back Georgia.
Republican challenger and former football star Herschel Walker is trailing by 3.8 points to Raphael Warnock in Georgia, and RCP does not predict he can recover. According to Mediaite, Walker has campaigned on a pro-life platform, but recent accusations of him paying for an abortion and then asking for another seem to have turned off many voters.
“A woman who spoke to both the Daily Beast and the New York Times this week has described the former football star as little more than a disingenuous absentee father.”
Walker, for his part, has denied the allegations as “a flat-out lie.” According to the Christian Post, Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, one of the largest pro-life groups in the country, has re-iterated their support for Walker, but RCP doesn’t predict the denial will win back voters’ favor.
Regarding the latest Democrat attack: pic.twitter.com/OjrDcGak95
— Herschel Walker (@HerschelWalker) October 3, 2022
On the other side of the country, in Arizona, the Republican candidate Blake Masters is trailing incumbent Mark Kelly in all available polls. However, RCP still projects Masters winning the race. This is likely due to the Republicans’ recent focus on border security and election integrity, two factors that both heavily impact the border state.
However, such careful analysis is not necessary regarding the Nevada race. Republican challenger Adam Laxalt is leading by over 2 points. Being surrounded by two border states, California and Arizona, Republican policy on the border is likely a similar incentive to Nevada voters.
Meanwhile, Republican nominee Mehemet Oz trails Democrat John Fetterman by nearly four points in Pennsylvania but is still projected to win by RCP.
The exact methods RCP uses to make its projections are unknown, but they obviously involve more than just polling data, likely taking into account the margin and direction of error in 2020’s polls, as well as the likelihood of voters actually turning out on election day.
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