Full Speed Ahead: All Signs Point Towards a Republican Blowout on Tuesday Night: Here’s Why
On the eve of the midterm elections, the nation’s most trusted election forecasters are projecting a big win for Republicans in the House and Senate.
RealClearPolitics, which has often been called the “Dow Jones of campaign coverage” and was one of the most accurate poll aggregators in 2016 and 2018, is predicting that Republicans will win every swing state Senate race except for the race in New Hampshire.
"Last Minute 2022 Polling Results from RealClearPolitics and Others (US Senate)"https://t.co/UQjihYR9A7
— Steve Mac Donald (@TheRealNHSteve) November 7, 2022
Nate Silver’s 538 shifted in favor of Republicans for the first time this November, where Republicans are now forecasted to win the Senate with 51 seats and given a 54% chance of taking control of the Senate.
— Oracle of Wall St (@OracleofWallSt) November 7, 2022
Democrats have expressed concerns about the midterm elections publicly and privately in the last few weeks.
Third Way, a center-left Think Tank considered influential to Democrat policymakers, has criticized the party for not caring about kitchen table issues and choosing to demonize Republicans instead.
“If Democrats manage to hold on to the House and Senate, it will be in spite of the party brand, not because of it,’ Third Way wrote in a memo obtained by Axios.
‘Despite a roster of GOP candidates who are extreme by any standard, voters see Democrats as just as extreme, as well as far less concerned about the issues that most worry them.” They said.
“If Democrats manage to hold on to the House and Senate, it will be in spite of the party brand, not because of it.”
— WelcomePAC 🍍 (@theWelcomePAC) November 7, 2022
Florida has been a case study in loyal Democratic voters switching parties as they feel Democrats are coming up short on solutions for issues such as inflation and crime.
In the Democratic stronghold of Miami-Dade, Republicans appear ready to overtake Democrats for the first time in twenty years. The shift is primarily due to Hispanic voters changing their allegiances due to economic and social issues.
“We have seen so many Hispanics flock to the Republican Party here in Miami-Dade County,” Florida’s Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nuñez said in a get-out-the-vote rally in Doral last month. “And I’m going to make a prediction right now — and those of you that are recording the news, you can quote me on this: We’re going to win Miami-Dade County come Nov. 8, 2022.”
The Republican Party of Miami is proud to close out early voting with a REPUBLICAN victory! More republicans than democrats have voted in Miami Dade. Let’s finish strong and vote bigly on Election Day! pic.twitter.com/1YzZNVJog4
— Republican Party of Miami-Dade (@MiamiDadeGOP) November 7, 2022
Another key demographic that could be a major contributing factor to a red wave is white women. White women voted for President Biden by a margin of 12 percent in the 2020 Presidential election. They are now poised to vote for Republicans by a 15 percent margin in the midterms, a 27-point swing in just two years.
BREAKING🚨WSJ Poll: White Women Favor GOP by 15 Points, Prefer Trump over Biden https://t.co/4yhobMPKtm
— Wendell Husebø (@WendellHusebo) November 2, 2022
Margot Cleveland of the Federalist said that Democrats blew an opportunity to keep white women in their column with a lack of clarity on economic issues and by defending shutdowns that kept kids out of schools.
Democracy Isn’t At Risk, Democrats Are https://t.co/4FpCuWPn31
— Florida Jolt (@FloridaJolt) November 7, 2022
“While Democrats thought the Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe provided them a trump card for the midterm elections, the key constituent group targeted with promises to codify Roe — suburban women — showed instead more concern over the current dire economic conditions. Those bread-and-butter issues, coupled with anger over the shutdown of schools and the harm inflicted on their children, seem to have pushed suburban moms to the right.” She said.
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