Florida Dems Target House Supermajority

TALLAHASSEE — After fielding candidates in all 120 House races, Florida Democrats have narrowed their focus in an effort to cut into Republicans’ supermajority in the chamber.

Democrats’ targets include more than a dozen incumbent Republicans as well as a handful of open House seats on the Nov. 5 ballot.

“It’s going to be competitive this cycle because of the high turnout of Democrats because independents are breaking for us in significant margins. That puts those seats pretty much in play for this election cycle,” Florida Democratic Party Chairwoman Nikki Fried told The News Service of Florida last week.

Republicans, meanwhile, are taking aim at several incumbent Democrats while fiercely defending GOP-held posts — including districts along the I-4 corridor recently flipped by Democrats.

With an 85-35 lead in the state House, the GOP can maintain its supermajority even if Republicans lose four seats in November. The supermajority essentially allows Republicans to fully control procedural rules and limit efforts to block more hardline partisan politics.

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A supermajority is “traditionally hard to keep,” Republican Party of Florida Chairman Evan Power said, when asked about Democrats’ efforts to cut into the GOP’s grip on the House.

“It will come down to turnout,” Power added. “We are working to turn out every Republican voter so that we can be in a position to be extremely competitive.”

Here are some House races to watch:

NORTH FLORIDA

— DISTRICT 9: Republicans have pumped efforts behind Spencer Brass, a Tallahassee real estate investor, in his bid against incumbent Rep. Allison Tant, D-Tallahassee, a former chairwoman of the Florida Democratic Party. The Democratic-leaning district is dominated by Leon County, but also stretches into more rural Jefferson and Madison counties.

CENTRAL FLORIDA

— DISTRICT 35: Democrats are fiercely defending incumbent Rep. Tom Keen in a rematch against Erika Booth, a former school board member defeated by Keen in a special election earlier this year. Keen, a former U.S. Navy flight officer, won the special election by about 600 votes. The seat, which includes parts of Orange and Osceola counties, was previously held by Rep. Fred Hawkins, a St. Cloud Republican who stepped down after being tapped as president of South Florida State College.

— DISTRICT 37: Democrats are hoping Nate Douglas of Oviedo, a former Orange Soil & Water Conservation District supervisor, can help the party recapture a Central Florida district that includes the University of Central Florida. Rep. Susan Plasencia, R-Orlando, wrested the seat from Democrat Carlos Guillermo Smith in 2022. A target of the GOP in 2022, Smith was elected to the state Senate this year without opposition. Democrats have a slight voter-registration edge in the district, which includes parts of Orange and Seminole counties.

— DISTRICT 38: A rematch is in the works between Rep. David Smith, a Winter Springs Republican seeking a fourth term, and Sarah Henry, a non-profit worker from Altamonte Springs. Smith defeated Henry in 2022 by 3,019 votes in the Seminole County district that had a slight majority of registered Democrats heading into the August primary election.

— DISTRICT 45: Republican Rep. Carolina Amesty, R-Windermere, is trying to hold onto her seat while also facing felony charges. Former Disney executive Leonard Spencer is challenging Amesty, who was indicted by a grand jury on forgery and other charges. Amnesty is accused of forging a signature on a document she notarized as an administrator of her family-run school Central Christian University in Orange County. Amesty won the Republican-leaning seat that spans parts of Orange and Osceola counties with more than 53 percent of the vote in 2022.

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— DISTRICT 47: Incumbent Paula Stark, R-St. Cloud, is facing Democrat Maria Revelles, an affordable housing advocate and union leader from Kissimmee, for the Central Florida seat. In 2022, Stark narrowly won the district, which includes parts of Osceola and Orange counties. Democrats have a slight voter-registration edge in the district.

— DISTRICT 60: Republicans are banking on St. Petersburg City Council member Ed Montanari to unseat freshman Rep. Lindsay Cross, an environmental scientist from St. Petersburg. Republicans have made gains in voter registration in the district over the past two years, but Democrats continued to hold an edge leading into the 2024 primary election. Independents make up for roughly 27 percent of the registered voters in the district.

SOUTH FLORIDA

— DISTRICT 94: The race for an open seat with a slight Republican tilt in Palm Beach County has Democrat Rachelle Litt, a former mayor of Palm Beach Gardens, squaring off against Meg Weinberger. Weinberger, the chairwoman of the county’s Mom for Liberty group, defeated three challengers in the August primary.

— DISTRICT 106: In a high-profile contest, former state Rep. Joe Saunders is trying to unseat freshman legislator Fabian Basabe, a Miami Beach Republican. Saunders is also having to fend off a challenge from his aunt, Maureen Saunders Scott, who appears on the ballot as “Mo Saunders Scott.” A Miami-Dade County circuit judge denied Joe Saunders’ effort to remove his aunt, a resident of St. Johns County, from the ballot. The lawsuit argued Scott qualified to run to deceive voters and “siphon votes” from Joe Saunders.

— DISTRICT 113: Democrats hope to recapture a seat that includes Key Biscayne, Fisher Island and downtown Miami. Independent voters outnumber a near-even split of Republicans and Democrats in the Miami-Dade County district. Incumbent Republican Rep. Vicki Lopez, a former Lee County Commissioner, defeated a Democratic challenger by 2 percentage points in a race for what was an open seat in 2022. Democrat Jacqueline “Jackie” Gross-Kellogg is trying to oust Lopez this year. Gross-Kellog has lived in Key Biscayne since 1975, with her three children attending the same public schools where she was an all-county soccer player

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