Democrats have sounded the alarm nationally as Hispanics have fled the Democratic Party in droves in key swing states such as Florida.
Some political strategists have said that Florida is an outlier and that Republicans will not see increased Hispanic support throughout the country.
“There’s definitely an outlier that makes Florida very different, which is this huge population of civically minded, engaged, older, solidly Republican Cubans that you’re never going to persuade to vote for a Democrat. That sets it apart from every other state in the union,” said Chuck Rocha, a Latino campaign strategist.
He further explained that Democrats have had trouble responding to Republicans’ free market messaging in the state with a high share of South Americans who fled socialist countries like Venezuela and Cuba.
Two-party new voter registration trends of Hispanics in Florida, from 2013 to mid-2022. pic.twitter.com/SIh5P8KYOt
— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) October 3, 2022
“The Democrats have been caught a little flat-footed,” Rocha said.
Still, recent polling has spelled some trouble for Democrats on a national level.
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According to an NBC News/Telemundo poll released last week, only a slim majority of Hispanics have said that they would prefer that Democrats win the upcoming midterm elections. 54% said they preferred Democrats keep control of Congress, a decrease of five percentage points since October 2020 and down 13 points since November 2018.
This is true not just in Florida but in the two-party Republican share of Hispanic new voter registration over the last decade across states with party registration. Take a look at Arizona. pic.twitter.com/2vnROpynMP
— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) October 4, 2022
Mike Madrid, a Latino Republican strategist, said that Republicans have seen success courting Hispanics by discussing pocketbook issues and avoiding identity politics.
Republicans are focusing on the economy, using “literally the exact same playbook” with Hispanics as they have with White blue-collar workers.
Madrid further said that Democrats have not come up with an answer for Republicans economic messaging, causing them to lose blue-collar workers of all races, particularly Hispanics.
“There’s no economic messages coming from the Democrats. None. So they’re not only losing White blue-collar workers, they’re losing brown blue-collar workers,” Madrid said. “The Democrats really don’t understand the size and scope of their problem, and they’re stuck in their own cultural cul-de-sac.”
Hispanic voters are prioritizing economic issues because many have historical experience of living under socialism. They know the real-world consequences of Democrats' rosy collectivist rhetoric. @JobCreatorsUSAhttps://t.co/nIEqeNnRgg
— Newt Gingrich (@newtgingrich) October 3, 2022
Cristina Antelo, a Cuban American lobbyist, said that Florida became a bellwether for the rest of the country after Rick Scott’s Senate race in 2018.
“Many of us were telling the DSCC, especially in Florida, that Republicans were putting in the work. Rick Scott put in the work,” She said.
“Then came 2020, and Democrats finally saw that after taking the Latino vote for granted, they saw the trends moving towards the GOP. It wasn’t just an anomaly in Florida anymore.”
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