‘Dead Heat’: New Poll Shows DeSantis Competitive with Trump in 2024 Matchup

Another national poll has confirmed that Ron DeSantis is the biggest potential threat to Donald Trump winning the 2024 Republican Presidential nomination.




The survey was released by the University of Massachusetts last Friday and indicated in a broad field race for the nomination, DeSantis is the only potential candidate in striking distance but is still short. Florida’s Governor comes in with 34% of respondents voting for him as their first choice, and the Former President sits at 37%, with the rest of the support divided between a dozen candidates, including contenders like Mike Pence, Ted Cruz, and Nikki Haley.

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However, a UMass press release indicates, “In a one-on-one matchup, DeSantis edges Trump among Republicans in the new national poll, 51-49, which is within the poll’s margin of error.” Tatishe Nteta, the poll director provost professor of political science at UMass Amherst, called this math-up a “statistical dead heat.”

Raymond La Raja, a professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll, also weighed in, analyzing how the voters break down.

“DeSantis appears to be the choice among the more establishment-oriented Republicans. In a head-to-head matchup between DeSantis and Trump among Republican voters, the outcome is basically even. However, older people, the more educated and the wealthy prefer DeSantis by solid margins. Men also prefer him – 57-43 – compared to women, who favor Trump, 54-46.”

Jesse Rhodes, another professor of political science at UMass Amherst and fellow co-director of the poll, argues that this voter makeup is good news for DeSantis.

“The fact that support for Ron DeSantis’ presidential ambitions comes disproportionately from older, wealthier and more educated Republicans is good news for him – and bad news for Trump. These are the people who are most likely to vote, make political contributions and participate in campaigns. If DeSantis is able to hold these voters, he will be in a very formidable position in the GOP primary.”

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The poll was conducted on a set of 1,00 individuals, selected to be a representative model for America as a whole on gender, age, race, and education.

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