Backroom Briefing: GOP Confident About Florida

TALLAHASSEE — National Republicans are confident they have Florida locked up in this year’s presidential race and might move some campaign staffers to more competitive states.

Officials in former President Donald Trump’s campaign told Florida Republicans this week they expect to win the state by double digits, with a significantly higher margin than Trump’s victories in Florida in 2016 and 2020.

James Blair, political director for the Trump campaign, said Tuesday during a Republican Party of Florida breakfast at the party’s national convention in Milwaukee that a lot of work remains in Florida over the next few months. But he quickly added that “we will probably try to borrow some of your great volunteers and manpower and ship them up to Georgia, North Carolina and these other places that are critical to the map.”

Though Democrats have maintained Florida is in play because of issues such as abortion rights and rising housing costs, Florida isn’t considered a battleground state.

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Trump won Florida with 49 percent of the vote in 2016. Four years later, Trump captured 51.2 percent of the state’s vote, topping Democrat Joe Biden by 3.3 percentage points. Trump likely needs to win Florida this year, while Biden, as he showed in 2020, can gather enough electoral votes without it.

Republicans have dominated Florida government for more than two decades, but the state was long considered a presidential battleground. The GOP, however, has steadily added to its dominance in recent years and held a 956,443-voter registration edge over Democrats as of June 30.

Tony Fabrizio, Trump’s chief pollster, told the Florida breakfast gathering that campaign officials no longer consider states like North Carolina and Arizona as toss-ups, instead saying they have put that label on Virginia, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico and Maine.

“These are opportunities that in 2016 or 2020 we would have never thought possible,” Fabrizio said. “Now, that doesn’t mean we’re going to win them all. We definitely have a shot to win them all.”

Fabrizio noted part of that is due to potential third-party spoilers, as “it all depends on who makes it on the ballot.” The effects of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent campaign have drawn widespread speculation.

Fabrizio also said a difference this year is that the Republican base’s enthusiasm for Trump is higher than the Democratic base’s enthusiasm for Biden.

Florida Democratic Party Chairwoman Nikki Fried on Wednesday told The News Service of Florida the state remains critical to the Electoral College map and that Republicans are underestimating voter frustration.

“Let them go to another state, because we are doing the work. People will see that we are going to stay on the battlefield every single day from now until November and beyond, making sure the people of our state know who is going to be fighting for them,” Fried said.

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FLORIDA NIGHT

Fried also wasn’t impressed with Tuesday’s Florida night at the GOP convention, saying appearances on stage were filled with “divisive rhetoric” that was simply “all about the kissing of the ring of Trump and pushing his agenda.”

“We’re still living under a six-week abortion ban. We still have the highest property insurance in the country. We still have the number one inflation in the nation,” Fried said.

Florida’s two U.S. senators, Marco Rubio and Rick Scott, and Gov. Ron DeSantis spoke Tuesday night at the convention about issues such as immigration and security. They primarily offered praise for Trump.

Scott didn’t mention his own re-election campaign or his bid to become Senate Republican leader. His speech focused on returning Trump to the White House, “where he should belong every day, going forward.”

“Well, the Democrats couldn’t stop him. The media couldn’t stop him. The liberal judges couldn’t stop him. A bullet from a madman couldn’t stop him. Can anything stop Donald Trump from becoming the next president and making America great again?” Scott said.

DeSantis briefly played up political changes in Florida.

“For decades, my home state saw elections determined by razor-thin margins,” DeSantis said. “Today, due to bold leadership, the Democratic Party lies in ruins. The left is in retreat. Freedom reigns supreme. The woke mind virus is dead. And Florida is a solid Republican state.”

DeSantis, whose relationship with Trump cooled when the governor unsuccessfully sought the presidential nomination, added, “Now electing Donald Trump gives us the chance to do this all across America.”

DeSantis also questioned Biden’s leadership, saying that “America can’t afford four more years of a ‘Weekend at Bernie’s’ presidency.”

DeSantis made a similar remark during a July 1 appearance in Pensacola after the debate between Biden and Trump, equating the current president with the title character from a 1989 movie about two salesmen who pursue a beachfront vacation with their dead boss, saying Democrats are “totally fine to have a ‘Weekend at Bernie’s’ part two.”

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Rubio, who was on a short list of possible running mates for Trump, said the former president has given “voice to everyday Americans.” Trump picked U.S. Sen. JD Vance of Ohio as his running mate, and Rubio noted their focus on issues at home rather than “the problems of other countries far away.”

“There is absolutely nothing dangerous or anything divisive about putting Americans first,” Rubio said.

SOCIAL MEDIA POST OF THE WEEK: “After the shooting in my hometown of Parkland, there was a thorough review of breakdowns in law enforcement’s training & response. The sheriff was removed from office. As Congress investigates the Trump rally shooting, there must be accountability for breakdowns in protocol.” — Florida Congressman Jared Moskowitz (@RepMoskowitz), referring to the 2018 mass shooting at Parkland’s Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School.

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